WHAT HAPPENED ELECTION NIGHT IN LOUISIANA?

Thursday, October 17^th, 2019

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

WHAT HAPPENED ELECTION NIGHT IN LOUISIANA?

As Gomer Pile insightfully said:  Surprise, Surprise, Surprise.  There were a number of them on election night in the Bayou State. Governor John Bel Edwards’ quest for a first primary victory fell flat as several factors in the final days of the campaign caused his poll numbers to plummet.  Now voters can look forward to a nasty runoff, with the airwaves filled with a boatload of negative TV and radio spots.

Turnout for this first primary election was a little better than average, but the tremendous turnout that was predicted never materialized.  Some 45% of registered voters went to the polls, or a total of 1.34 million people turning out.  Remember that only half of those folks who are eligible to vote have not registered.  That means that 23% of the population is actually picking the leaders for the next four years.

What happened to predictions that Gov. Edwards would win a first primary victory?  Those prognosticators made predictions based on polls taken 10 days out from election day. But then two things happened. The Republican Governors Association blitzed televisions sets statewide with a negative spot charging Gov. Edwards with ignoring sexual harassment accusations against a top aide in his office.

The Governor’s response was weak, with a handful of women on TV saying how supportive he was on women’s issues.  But the charges of ignoring the sexual harassment claims were never strongly addressed.  In the new world of #MeToo, John Bel’s judgement was seriously questioned by many undecided voters.

Then there was the Trump factor.  The President initially stayed out of the race, but in the final days he came to Lake Charles, his son spoke to a large rally in Lafayette, and he regularly tweeted that Gov. Edwards was “a Nancy Pelosi/Chuck Schumer Democrat, who does nothing but stymie all of the things we are doing to Make America Great Again. Don’t be fooled, John Bel Edwards will NEVER be for us.”  Pretty heavy attack against the Governor who the President has called his “favorite democrat.”

When the election dust settled, the Governor was forced into a runoff with republican businessman Eddie Rispone, John Bel received only 46% of the vote.  A third candidate, Congressman Ralph Abraham, immediately pledged full support to Rispone, and the President promised to actively campaign for him in the November 9^th runoff.  So John Bel Edwards, the only democratic southern governor, looks ahead to the fight of his political life.

In the first primary, Edwards praised his own past performance, and Rispone spent millions of dollars attacking the Governor’s record.  Wouldn’t it be refreshing in the runoff if the candidates spent time talking about the state’s future?

The other highly contested statewide race was for commissioner of insurance.  Many political observers felt that challenger Tim Temple had incumbent commissioner Jim Donelon on the ropes. Donelon had raised most of his campaign money from insurance interests, including taking $20,000 from an insurance executive who was charged with bribing an insurance commissioner.

Donelon’s TV commercials lobbed a number of erroneous charges against Temple, while the challenger tried to stay on the high road.  Voters will complain they don’t like campaign mud being thrown.  But pollsters will say that negative campaigning works. To heck with the serious issues facing the state. Just spend your campaign cash beating up on your opponent.

Temple also erred in playing up his insurance background. Ouachita Citizen publisher Sam Hanna perceptively observed that the race “was just one insurance guy against another insurance guy.” Many policyholders wanted a commissioner who was looking out for them, not the insurance companies.  Donelon will be past 80 in the next statewide election, so Temple, who has built up strong name recognition, will be a solid favorite to win the office in 2023.

Both the Democratic and Republican Governor’s Associations will pour several million dollars in to their respective gubernatorial campaigns.  This will be the most expensive statewide election in the state’s history. And get ready voters. There will certainly be a lot of political mud in the air over the next few weeks.

Peace and Justice

Jim Brown

Jim Brown’s syndicated column appears each week in numerous newspapers throughout the nation and on websites worldwide.  You can read all his past columns and see continuing updates at http://www.jimbrownusa.com.  You can also hear Jim’s nationally syndicated radio show each Sunday morning from 9:00 am till 11:00 am Central Time on the Genesis Radio Network, with a live stream at http://www.jimbrownusa.com.

LABOR OF LOVE TO VOTE!

Thursday, October 10^th, 2019

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

LABOR OF LOVE TO VOTE!

People early voted in record numbers for Saturday’s first primary election.  Here in Louisiana, election participation was up 25% over the gubernatorial election just four years ago. Predictions proved true that as many as 35% or more of total voters will cast their ballots before Election Day.

Pollster John Couvillion released figures showing many Louisianans either early voted by person or by mail in ballot (340,480 in person, and 33,710 mail in ballots). To put this number in perspective, Couvillion concluded that this is the highest early voting turnout ever for a non-Presidential election. 

I personally feel that fall elections should be moved to the spring. There is just way too much competition on busy fall Saturdays.  As I wrote last week, there are plenty of things to draw a voter’s attention with LSU football, numerous fairs and festivals, and a busy squirrel season weekend.  Voting should be at the top of one’s list, but that’s just not always the case for many people. 

Because of so much election interest, I figured I would beat the crowd and absentee vote. It became a real labor of my civic responsibility. The line was long around the local early voting location at the State Archives in Baton Rouge.

As the line I was in continued to move forward, I checked out some of my fellow about-to-be voters.  That older lady with a face-lift and the Sketcher Shape-Ups?  Definitely Rispone or Abraham voter.  How about the guy right in front of me wearing Birkenstocks and a t-shirt that says: “FAUX News – where facts don’t matter?”  Has to be a sure thing for John Bel Edwards.

On the wall a little closer up, there is a stop sign that says: “No political activity within 300 yards of this polling location.”  I came up with this idea to place such a sign at all polling locations back when I was Secretary of State and Louisiana’s chief elections officer in 1982.  Oh, yes, I did add: “Ordered by James H. Brown-Secretary of State.”  I thought it looked pretty good until, when it was time to run for re-election, my opponents hollered that I was the one who was doing the politicking.  Oh, well!

I finally arrived at the voting booth, gave my name, showed my photo ID (no big deal), and then asked the lady-polling commissioner if she had any doughnuts?  You see, back in the days when I was running for state senator in Northeast Louisiana, I always delivered boxes of doughnuts to each polling location. The voting commissioners loved it, and I’m sure they would occasionally volunteer a suggestion as to whom to vote for when a quizzical voter wandered in. And there were always extra doughnuts for voters who asked. This time, (37 years later) the lady looked at me like I was nuts.

I entered my voting booth along with the lady commissioner who inserted a little plastic card into my computerized machine. She must have figured I was too stupid to stick it in myself.  I made my choices, and like many voters, guessed at voting for a few candidates and propositions where I hadn’t a clue of how, or for whom to vote.  But I finished. I had done my civic duty.

But I felt a bit let down.  Is that all there is?  Maybe it was the candidates. I cannot remember one substantive solution to the state’s numerous problems offered by any of the three major contenders for governor.  Both parties seemed at constant political war, with a disregard of what’s in the best interest of Louisiana.

Whoever the victors for statewide offices are on Election Day, here’s hoping the winners will immediately set out workable agendas and specific goals for Louisiana in the coming four years. If not, here’s the encouraging news. It’s only 1,465 days until the next gubernatorial election.

Peace and Justice

Jim Brown

Jim Brown’s syndicated column appears each week in numerous newspapers throughout the nation and on websites worldwide.  You can read all his past columns and see continuing updates at http://www.jimbrownusa.com.  You can also hear Jim’s nationally syndicated radio show each Sunday morning from 9:00 am till 11:00 am Central Time on the Genesis Radio Network, with a live stream at http://www.jimbrownusa.com.

WHO’S GOING TO WIN ON LOUISIANA ELECTION NIGHT?

Thursday, October 3^rd, 2019

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

WHO’S GOING TO WIN ON LOUISIANA ELECTION NIGHT?

With the Louisiana statewide election only a few days away, and with many voters already making their way to the polls, it would seem to be a good time for me to gaze into my crystal ball and make a prediction of just who will be successful after all the vote are tallied.  As many of you regular reader well know, I generally am right on the money.  (yeah, right!)

First of all, turnout.  Don’t be confused by the large number of voters showing up early to absentee vote.  High early numbers are relatively new in Louisiana.  You used to need a reason to vote early.  Not any more.  Election Day voting on October 12^th will be fairly light, as many voters don’t want to wait until then.  There is too much competition.  After all, LSU plays 10^th ranked Florida, there are numerous fairs and festivals, and it’s squirrel season.  Whose got time to vote?

So let’s begin at the top of the ticket.  Can Gov. John Bel Edwards carry off a first primary victory?  His two republican challengers are running neck and neck, even attacking each other, in hopes of forcing a runoff.  The Governor has spent some 11 million dollars and corralled a host of republican public officials and business men and women to endorse him in an effort to get just over 50% of the vote.  He’s been consistently running right at 48% in recent polls, with 10 to 12% of voters still undecided.  With a barrage of last-minute television, radio and mailing saturation, I predict that he will just top the needed 50% to win outright in the first primary.

There is little interest in most of the other statewide races on the ballot.  Surprisingly to many political observers, Lt. Governor Billy Nungesser and Attorney General Jeff Landry are heavily spending campaign dollars on their way to rather easy reelection victories.  But they are not throwing away their campaign cash.  Four years pass by quickly and look for both of these guys to be doing some early posturing for the governor’s race in 2023.

The one other statewide race that is garnering major attention is the battle for insurance commissioner.  It’s normally tough to beat a current statewide official.  But twelve-year incumbent Jim Donelon is in the fight of his political life. Donelon has been in public office for some 50 years, and told supporters he was ready to retire, then changed his mind.  Challenger Tim Temple, a Baton Rouge insurance executive, is making his first run for public office, and has both outworked and outspent the incumbent.  With Louisiana facing some of the highest insurance rates in the nation, Temple has aggressively made his compelling case for a change.  Look for Temple to be the only major candidate who will knockoff an incumbent statewide official.

There are four constitutional amendments on the ballot for voters to consider. They all are hard for many voters to understand and are unnecessary.  All the issues involved should and could have been handled by the Louisiana legislature.

Amendment one-A ridiculous amendment that would prohibit Louisiana from being able to tax goods, such as offshore drilling equipment, stored in the state but intended to be used off the coast.  But the U.S. Constitution already prevents states from taxing property destined for other states or countries.  So there is no reason for such a change.

Amendment two-Allows for appropriations from the Education Excellence Fund for the Louisiana Educational Television Authority, Thrive Academy, and laboratory schools operated by public post-secondary education institutions.”  This funding could have easily been handled by the legislature.

Amendment three-The board of tax appeals would be able to rule whether tax matters are constitutional under state or federal law. They board is not made up of lawyers and it’s not their job to determine what’s constitutional.

Amendment four- New Orleans would be allowed to create a residential property tax exemption.  Why on earth are voters in Monroe or Lake Charles voting on what New Orleans can or cannot do?  One more reason for the need of a constitutional convention. 

 But guess what?  All four amendments will pass. Voters just don’t seem to care anymore so we will continue to have a unwheeled and cluttered constitution. It will take a courageous governor to step up and start the process for such a change.  We will see next week if my predictions are correct.

Peace and Justice

Jim Brown

Jim Brown’s syndicated column appears each week in numerous newspapers throughout the nation and on websites worldwide.  You can read all his past columns and see continuing updates at http://www.jimbrownusa.com.  You can also hear Jim’s nationally syndicated radio show each Sunday morning from 9:00 am till 11:00 am Central Time on the Genesis Radio Network, with a live stream at http://www.jimbrownusa.com.